Analysis of Jill Stein's Chance of Debating Major Party Candidates

Will Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, gain the opportunity to debate with the major party candidates in the upcoming elections?

The Current Scenario

The probability of Jill Stein being allowed to debate with the other major party candidates certainly seems better than initially advertised. However, despite an unusual election season characterized by rule-bending, there are still specific criteria that will prevent her from participating in the debates.

Historically, third-party candidates have rarely made it to the debate stage. In 1858, the Republican Party was seen as an inconsequential third party. Similarly, Theodore Roosevelt’s new Progressive Party, or the Bull Moose party, was initially dismissed as having little impact. Yet, these parties eventually became significant, reflecting the dynamic nature of American election politics.

Debate Eligibility Criteria

To be included in the debates under the current rules, a candidate must achieve at least 15% support in an average of five major polls. This is a substantial hurdle for third-party candidates. As of the most recent polls, no third-party candidate, including Jill Stein, has met these criteria.

For instance, according to CNN polling, Jill Stein is at 5%, while Gary Johnson, another third-party candidate, is at 13%. The two major party candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, are leading at 42% and 37%, respectively. NBC/ Wall St. and ABC/WashPost polls show similar results: Clinton at 41%, Trump at 35%, Johnson at 11%, and Stein at 6%.

Historical and Current Trends

Historically, third-party support typically reaches its peak during the campaign and stabilizes. This suggests that third-party candidates’ chances of increasing their support significantly are minimal in the final stages of a campaign.

Furthermore, the current climate of low approval ratings for both major party candidates (Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump), might provide fleeting opportunities for a third-party candidate to gain traction. However, historical precedents indicate that such instances are rare. Even if there were to be a shake-up late in the game, it would be considered a significant anomaly.

Risk Assessment

Based on the current polling data and historical patterns, it is highly unlikely that Jill Stein will participate in the debates. The slim chances of increasing her support sufficiently to meet the debate eligibility criteria make this scenario improbable.

Conclusion: Given the stringent debate eligibility rules and the current polling data, it is more feasible to expect a Clinton-Trump-only debate. Until there is a significant and unforeseen shift in the electorate, the path to the debates for third-party candidates like Jill Stein remains largely closed.

Thanks for the A2A, Alexei!