Introduction

The idea that Biden might resign if he wins the presidency has become a topic of considerable debate. Speculation about this scenario has gained traction, especially given the unique circumstances surrounding his run for re-election. Critics argue that Biden’s potential resignation could be a ruse to facilitate Kamala Harris's rise to the presidency, a position where she would become the first female president of the United States. This article delves into the feasibility of this scenario and examines the implications if it were to unfold.

The Speculation

It is remarkable that this possibility is now being considered seriously, marking a historic shift in how we view the dynamics of U.S. politics. The author, who doubled down on a bet that Biden would resign in February 2023, highlights the unusual nature of this scenario. The bet reflects an underlying belief that Kamala Harris would be the one to take the helm of the presidency in case Biden no longer could handle the position. The author acknowledges the challenging nature of this bet and humorously notes that the wager led to his respite with a lot of beer, which eased the financial impact of the wager’s losses.

Perceived Unlikely Scenarios

Democratic Plans and White House Strategy

Speculation abounds regarding the strategic planning of the Democratic Party. Some argue that the events leading up to the 2024 election might play out in a way that congressional pressure could force Biden to resign, paving the way for Kamala Harris's presidency. However, such scenarios must be weighed against the real likelihood of Biden's performance on the campaign trail and post-election. The author suggests that the odds of Biden being the actual candidate in 2024 are less than 50-50, indicating a high level of uncertainty and internal competition within the Democratic Party.

Political Dynamics and Popularity

Further adding to the complexity is the question of whether Biden's resignation would be in the best interest of the Democratic Party, given Kamala Harris's significantly lower popularity. The author posits that Harris might not be a strong contender for the presidency, as she is less popular than Biden and could risk losing the Republican candidate the election. This combination of factors suggests that the scenario of Biden resigning while Kamala Harris takes over might be the least probable outcome.

Historical Precedents and Future Prospects

Looking at historical precedents, it's evident that such a scenario is not unprecedented but also not a common one. The author reminds readers that people were confident this would happen in 2020, but it didn't. Given Biden's track record, the idea that he would resign is less likely to materialize. Throughout his career, Biden has shown dedication to his duties, making it improbable that he would abruptly step down unless faced with severe internal or external pressures.

Conclusion

While the idea of Biden resigning if he wins the 2024 election is certainly intriguing, the likelihood is low. Factors such as Biden's ego, his commitment to serving the presidency, and the potential for Democratic efforts to maintain their power all point towards Biden continuing in office. The political landscape faces numerous challenges and uncertainties, but it seems improbable that a simple resignation would play a significant role in the outcome of the upcoming election.