CRS Score Predictions: Why 438 Going Below Is Unlikely
Concerned about the future of the CRS score in 2019-2020? This article dives into the question of whether the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score might go below 438 during this period. With insights from expert perspectives, we aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of the situation.
Understanding the Current Situation
The CRS score is a crucial component of Canada's Express Entry system, which helps select candidates for their official immigration categories. Each Express Entry pool draw sets a score threshold, and candidates with scores above that threshold receive an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for permanent residency.
Engaging in the conversation about CRS score predictions, it's essential to consider the historical trends and current dynamics. Last year, there was a similar debate about whether the CRS score would drop below a certain point, and the outcomes inevitably changed the landscape for many applicants.
The Future of the CRS Score
According to various opinions, it is very unlikely that the CRS score will drop below 438 in 2019-2020. Here are several perspectives:
Stability and Trend Analysis
One of the most common views is that it is unlikely that the CRS score will drop below 438. This stability is attributed to the consistent draw sizes and the continuous increase in the number of applicants. Each draw invites around 3350 candidates, a number that is expected to remain stable unless there's a significant change in the immigration policies.
While the CRS score has increased over the years, this is seen as a positive sign. More candidates are qualifying within a certain score range, reflecting the growing pool of skilled workers interested in settling in Canada. This trend is expected to continue due to the steady migration of people from the United States and other countries to Canada.
Factors Affecting CRS Scores
Another key factor in determining CRS scores is the number of applicants. The continuous rise in the number of applicants for Express Entry, especially from Asian countries, poses a challenge for CRS score reductions. As more people compete for the same spots, it becomes harder for the CRS score to drop significantly.
Experts predict that while the CRS score may fluctuate, a score above 400 remains a safe and competitive level. The fear of a significant drop is mitigated by the current stable draw sizes and the overall growth in the Express Entry pool.
Specific Scenarios
In some scenarios, the CRS score might drop below 438, but this is not the most probable outcome. For instance, if there are back-to-back weekly draws with an increased draw size (e.g., 3900 per week), it could impact the CRS scores. However, this scenario is seen as an unlikely event for the next few years.
The draw size of 3900 was common in 2018, which was also a period of high immigration activity. Currently, draw sizes range between 3300 and 3400, and the pool volume has increased. These factors contribute to a more stable CRS score environment.
Alternative Paths to Canadian Immigration
Given the potential challenges with CRS scores, applicants should explore other paths to Canadian immigration. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) offer an alternative route that aligns more directly with local economic needs. With PNPs, the focus is on a candidate's fit for a specific province, which can be a less competitive route compared to federal immigration processes.
PNPs offer a higher chance of obtaining an ITA, especially if the candidate has specific skills or ties to a particular province. These programs often have a more straightforward process for skilled workers, with fewer competition spikes compared to Express Entry pools.
Conclusion
While there are potential scenarios that could impact the CRS score, the consensus among experts is that a drop below 438 is unlikely in the near future. The CRS score is influenced by various factors, but the current trend of rising applicants and stable draw sizes suggests that a competitive score above 400 remains the norm.
For those interested in Canadian immigration, it's advisable to focus on strategies that offer a competitive edge, such as exploring PNPs or other provincial programs. These alternative pathways can provide a reliable path to living and working in Canada, even if the CRS score remains relatively high.
FAQs
Q: Will the CRS score definitely stay above 438?
A: While it's unlikely, there is no absolute guarantee. However, based on current trends and the increasing number of applicants, the CRS score is more likely to remain stable or fluctuate minimally around 438 or above.
Q: Are there any factors that could cause the CRS score to drop?
A: Increased competition from a growing pool of applicants and the possibility of more frequent and larger draws can slightly impact the CRS score. However, these factors are not expected to cause a significant and sustained drop below 438.
Q: What are my options if I’m concerned about the CRS score?
A: If you are worried about the CRS score, consider exploring Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) or other provincial immigration pathways. These options can often provide more straightforward processes and are less competitive.