Election Outcomes and the Future of Small Business Stimulus
With the upcoming elections, the prospects for additional stimulus money for small businesses have become a topic of intense discussion. The decisions made in these elections will significantly impact whether and how small businesses can receive further assistance to navigate the ongoing economic challenges.
The Impact of the Senate and House Divisions
The upcoming elections in the United States will have a decisive impact on the potential future of small business stimulus. There are four primary scenarios based on the outcomes of the Senate and House of Representatives.
If Joe Biden wins, and the Democrats take the Senate and maintain the House: Small businesses are likely to receive a more substantial package of stimulus, potentially exceeding recent discussions of around $100 billion. This increased funding aligns with President-elect Biden's and the Democratic Party's philosophy of using government to provide support for the economy and small businesses.
If Joe Biden wins, but Democrats do not take the Senate or lose the House: This scenario would likely result in no new stimulus for small businesses. However, it would be surprising if Biden's cabinet selections are entirely unaffected. The president has the power to nominate individuals who share his vision for the country, even if the legislative branches are controlled by a different party.
If Donald Trump wins, and Democrats take the Senate and maintain the House: This scenario presents a moderate possibility for a stimulus package, but it is likely to be in line with the "skinny deal" that was recently vetoed. Trump's administration tends to favor a smaller, more targeted approach to government spending.
If Donald Trump wins, and Republicans maintain the Senate and Democrats either keep or lose the House: A small amount of stimulus might be possible, but it would likely be minimal and consistent with the previous "skinny deal." The Republican Party generally favors limited government intervention and tends to oppose larger stimulus packages.
Policy Differences and Partisan Views
The key difference in policy lies in the core beliefs of the parties concerning the role of government in stimulating the economy. Democrats believe in the government's ability and responsibility to help small businesses and the broader economy. In contrast, Republicans advocate for a smaller role of government.
For small business owners, the upcoming election is an opportunity to align their voting choices with their economic interests rather than political ideologies. Historically, when the Democrats are in control, the economy performs better, and such economic prosperity often translates directly into benefits for small businesses.
The Economic Benefits of Increased Government Spending
The importance of a supportive government in times of economic uncertainty cannot be overstated. Increased government spending, particularly when targeted at small businesses, can have significant positive effects on local economies.
Refundable Tax Credits: If government spending includes refundable tax credits, small businesses can use this money to strengthen their financial position and support local businesses they rely on. For example, an increase in federal taxes could potentially be offset by reductions in Obamacare deductibles, allowing business owners to retain more disposable income for personal spending.
Healthcare Subsidies: Improved access to healthcare through subsidies can reduce the cost of employing workers. When employees have better health insurance options, businesses face lower employee turnover costs and can create a more stable workforce. This stability is crucial for maintaining productivity and preventing business disruptions.
Conclusion
The outcome of the upcoming elections will directly influence the future of small business stimulus. Small business owners should consider the implications of each scenario and vote based on what aligns best with their economic well-being.
When the government provides support through targeted tax credits and improved access to healthcare, small businesses not only see direct financial benefits but also contribute to a healthier local economy. Ultimately, the decisions made in the Senate and House will shape the economic landscape for small businesses for years to come.