Understanding the Pathways for a Trump 2020 Electoral College Victory

As the United States approaches the 2020 election, the focus has shifted to understanding the pathways for a potential victory for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, while considering the improbability of winning the popular vote. Historically, Trump was the runner-up in the national popular vote in 2016, and this pattern is expected to repeat this time around.

The Role of the Electoral College

In the United States, the winner of the electoral vote, not the national popular vote, decides the presidential election. Therefore, Trump’s main goal is to prevent candidate Joe Biden from securing at least 270 Electoral College votes, or to achieve a victory through legal and political maneuvers.

Legal and Political Maneuvers

One pathway for Trump to achieve an Electoral College victory could involve legal obstacles. The Electoral Count Act of 1887 is ambiguous and could be interpreted in his favor. Another potential avenue involves influence on State legislatures to alter the process of selecting electors for the Electoral College.

Electoral College Results Disputes

If multiple states send duplicate certified Electoral College results, the Electoral Count Act of 1887 might be invoked. This act provides a framework for Congress to resolve disputes, but its ambiguity leaves room for interpretation.

What Happens if No Candidate Reaches 270 Electoral Votes

In the event that no candidate secures a majority of the electoral votes, the election would be decided by the U.S. House of Representatives.

Mathematical Analysis of Key States

Given the current polling data, it appears that Biden is strongly favored in several crucial states. Here is a breakdown of the states where Biden is expected to gain a majority of electoral votes:

States Hillary Clinton won in 2016: 227 electoral votes Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes Michigan: 16 electoral votes Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes Additional key states: Florida: 29 electoral votes North Carolina: 15 electoral votes Arizona: 10 electoral votes Closest states: Georgia: 16 electoral votes Iowa: 6 electoral votes Ohio: 18 electoral votes Texas: 36 electoral votes

Even if Trump were to win Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, he would still fall short of the 270 electoral votes required to win. Therefore, the math is against him in the Electoral College as well.

Challenges for Trump’s Campaign

The challenge for Trump's campaign is not just about winning the electoral votes but also about maintaining momentum and support. A clear drop in public popularity makes a comeback unlikely. Additionally, Trump has made several controversial statements and actions that have further eroded his support among key voter demographics.

Conclusion

Donald Trump has almost zero chance of winning the popular vote, and despite his campaign rhetoric and actions, it seems that his pathway to the White House through the Electoral College is also extremely challenging. Until there is a significant shift in public support or a major legal victory, Trump's path to re-election remains highly unlikely.