Is Tripura the Next BJP-TMC Battlefield in National Politics?
The political landscape of Tripura is rapidly evolving, making it an intriguing battleground for national parties. This small state, which just 3 Members of Parliament (MPs) represent in the Lok Sabha, has become a significant player in Indian politics. In the last assembly elections, a BJP-IPFT alliance defeated the CPIM, a feat they had not achieved in 25 years. Moreover, in the 2021 Assembly Constituency (ADC) elections, a newly formed party called Tripura Motha, led by Pradyut Kishore, managed to secure 18 out of 28 seats.
A New Political Tendency is Evident in Tripura
The voters in Tripura have shown a growing inclination towards supporting new parties, a trend evidenced by at least two significant instances. This development has led to a reevaluation of Tripura’s importance in the national political arena. The reason for this change lies in the aftermath of the recent West Bengal (WB) election. A massive victory for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) has sparked a new perception that she could potentially challenge the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
Why is Tripura So Important in National Politics?
To understand why Tripura is crucial, we need to examine the political dynamics in West Bengal post the WB election. Mamata Banerjee's victory has given the opposition a much-needed boost and changed the perception that only Modi can win the upcoming General Elections (GE) in 2024. This perception is vital for the success of the opposition parties, including the TMC.
The Prelude to the Election
Mamata Banerjee and her TMC are set to stake their claim in Tripura, seeking to expand their influence. Several key factors justify this target:
**Beating BJP as a National Alternative**: A victory in Tripura, a state where TMC has no presence, would project Mamata as the only viable alternative to Modi. This would be a significant setback for the BJP.
**Prestige and Political Prestige**: For both BJP and TMC, this state election is a matter of prestige and national image. The manner in which TMC leaders are visiting Tripura showcases their seriousness in the region.
**Historical Context**: The comparison to the 2018 assembly elections, when the BJP ended the 25-year rule of the left, highlights the significance of this state. Five years later, the TMC and Congress are ready to take on the BJP, seeking to challenge them again.
Expected Election Scenario
It is highly likely that the TMC and Congress will jointly challenge the BJP and its allies in Tripura. TMC leaders have started visiting the state, including a notable press conference with Abhishek Banerjee. Iconic tweets from the TMC official Twitter handle further signal their commitment to this campaign.
The TMC sees no other option than to fight and win in Tripura. Losing this momentum after their recent victory in West Bengal would be a significant setback. Therefore, the upcoming assembly election in Tripura is poised to be a decisive power struggle between the BJP and TMC, with implications for national politics.
Conclusion
As the small hilly state of Tripura prepares for its polls in 2023, it stands out as an interesting and important state for both BJP and TMC. The competition to win this state adds a layer of complexity to the national political landscape, ensuring that the next assembly election in Tripura will be highly engaging and consequential.