Predicting the 2020 Election: Understanding the Electoral College and Popular Vote

When discussing the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, it's crucial to understand the differences between the popular vote and the electoral college vote. This article aims to explore the complexities of predicting the outcome of both measures in the 2020 election.

Why Can’t You Call the 2020 Election a Popular Vote or Electoral College Map?

It is inaccurate to refer to the 2020 election as a popular vote or an electoral college map. The appeal of different candidates varied significantly. For instance, Donald Trump had a strong appeal to the Midwest, while Hillary Clinton did not. On the other hand, Barack Obama had a greater appeal among non-white voters than Hillary Clinton did. The effectiveness of the campaigns also played a significant role, but predicting future events is always challenging.

Conservative Predictions

Based on current trends, it is reasonable to predict that most states will remain in their existing political camps. However, it is important to acknowledge that there remains a degree of unpredictability. For example, if a third-party candidate, similar to Ross Perot in 1992, performs exceptionally well, the outcome could be drastically different. This leaves 36 electoral votes in a disputed state.

Aggressive Predictions

Assuming a highly competitive national race, how might the states break down? In this aggressive scenario, we must consider the possibility of the Rust Belt states swinging towards the Republicans. Combining this with Democratic trends in several other states, the results could closely resemble the 2016 election, but with a margin possibly similar to or even more pronounced.

Implications for the Popular Vote

When it comes to the popular vote, it is challenging to make precise predictions. Historically, Democrats have won the popular vote in six out of the last seven elections, often by significant margins. The margin is estimated to be in favor of the Democrats, with a small edge, around 5-7 points.

Exact margins require additional information that is currently unavailable. It's important to remember that predicting election outcomes with precision is inherently uncertain. Factors such as voter turnout, unforeseen events, and the effectiveness of campaign strategies play critical roles in the final results.

Conclusion

Predicting the 2020 election, whether based on the electoral college or the popular vote, involves acknowledging the complexity of the U.S. political landscape. While historical trends can provide insights, the inherent unpredictability of future events means that definitive predictions are challenging to make.

For further analysis and to remain informed, it's essential to review recent polls, economic indicators, and voter sentiment. By doing so, one can better understand the dynamics at play and the potential outcomes of the 2020 election.