Rajinikanth Entering Politics: An Analysis of Potential Winners and Losers
Rajinikanth, a legendary film industry icon in Tamil Nadu, is often considered a potential political candidate. However, the question arises: who would benefit if Rajinikanth were to start his own political party?
The BJP Strategy
BJP Strategy: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is strategizing to politicize the Rajini Makkal Mandram (Rajinikanth's personal fan club) into electoral votes, whether Rajinikanth directly enters politics or not. This move aims to capture votes from Rajinikanth's vast fanbase, who might prefer him to traditional political figures.
The NTK Factor
NTK Analysis: A lot of anti-Rajinikanth voters would be faced with a choice between Stalin and Seeman. Given that Seeman has been firmly against Rajinikanth's entry into politics even before he spoke about it, the sincerity of Rajinikanth's opposition could benefit Nationalist Christian Congress (NTK). Seeman's stance as a proponent of status quo against changes could resonate well with his existing voter base.
Other Political Parties' Intentions
Other Parties' Strategies: Other political parties like Kamal VCK Congress, DMK, and DMDK will likely use Rajinikanth as a bargaining chip to gain more electoral seats. Kamal Hassan, in particular, could benefit from the support of B and C centre voters that he has struggled to attract in the past.
No Clear Winner for India
No Clear Political Beneficiary for India: It is worth questioning whether Rajinikanth entering politics would actually benefit India. Rajinikanth's rise to fame is rooted deeply in his acting career, and his potential political influence is uncertain.
A recent Rajinikanth's support of the BJP, where he stated that whatever the police has done is right during the Sterlite case when 11 civilians, including 3 school children, were killed, raises doubts about his political stance. His stance on the release of 7 members arrested in the Rajiv Gandhi murder case further highlights his political ambivalence.
Possible Impact on Elections
Elections Impact: If Rajinikanth were to enter the political arena, several scenarios could unfold. He may win on his own with a landslide majority, divide the votes between the DMK and AIADMK, making the election unpredictable, or even see his entry as a symbolic gesture with no significant impact. The scenario from the 2020 elections shows that Rajinikanth's rule during the 1980s cannot be replicated today. The example of Chiranjeevi, who failed to make a significant impact in AP politics despite his popularity, has likely influenced Rajinikanth's decision not to enter politics directly.
Conclusion
While Rajinikanth has a massive fanbase in Tamil Nadu, it is highly unlikely that he would be voted into any major political office. Tamilians are not fools, and his fan club's appeal is limited. Even if he were to enter politics, the potential political beneficiary would be BJP, which already has several B teams, including AIADMK and Thambis.
Let's not assume Rajinikanth will be voted to the throne. While he could draw significant attention and potentially create economic demand for goods and services, this does not necessarily equate to political success or benefit for India as a whole.