Should Another Brexit Referendum Be Held?
Four years ago, the United Kingdom made a historic decision by voting to leave the European Union (EU) in the first Brexit referendum. This decision resulted in a series of complex and ongoing negotiations, reshaping the political landscape both in the UK and across Europe. However, the question remains: if there were another chance to vote on Brexit, what would the results be, and what does the current political environment suggest?
Current Legislative and Political Stance
Several factors can influence the outcome of a hypothetical second referendum. Notably, the Labour Party and its leader, Keir Starmer, have proposed that the UK rejoin the EU without a new referendum. In an interview, Starmer stated that the idea of a second referendum is 'utterly irrelevant,' suggesting that the party views any such initiative as unnecessary. This stance indicates that, within the current political landscape, Labour's priorities lie elsewhere, and a second referendum is unlikely to gain significant traction.
Public Opinion and Voting Outcomes
According to recent polls, public opinion regarding Brexit is divided. As of August 2023, 55% of people in Great Britain believed that leaving the EU was a wrong decision, while 33% thought it was the right one. This indicates a persistent divide among the British public, which could reflect in the outcome of a second referendum.
However, the possibility of a third referendum has been discussed within certain political circles. How this might influence the final result is complex. A new referendum would likely lead to a debate in the House of Commons followed by the publication of a White Paper. Subsequently, a Bill would be introduced in Parliament for the eventual holding of a referendum. The process, which would require multiple readings in both the Commons and the House of Lords, could take months or even years to complete.
Political Partisanship and the Red Wall
The makeup of the governing body and the support base of the major political parties will heavily influence the likelihood of a second referendum. In the event that Labour forms a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, the political climate suggests that a second referendum is more likely. This is because:
Red Wall Revival: The red wall constituencies, which largely consist of Labour supporters who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election, may return to Labour in a future election. This shift in political alignment could provide Labour with a mandate to call for a referendum.
Debate and Fixing the Country: Labour would benefit from a victory in a second referendum, as it would allow them to claim they are addressing the concerns of their constituency and potentially improving the country's standing in the EU.
Elimination of Backlash: A referendum held within weeks of a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition could mitigate the backlash from hardline Brexiteers, who would likely oppose the idea vehemently.
The timeline provided for such a scenario places a second referendum within the context of another election, possibly as early as 2029 or 2030, when Labour and the Liberal Democrats would have a strong position to push for a referendum.
Conclusion
Given the current political environment, the likelihood of holding a second Brexit referendum is contingent on the formation of specific coalitions and the evolving public opinion. While the outcome of such a referendum remains uncertain, it is clear that the political landscape will continue to shape the discourse and actions surrounding Brexit.
Ultimately, the UK's relationship with the EU is complex, influenced by broader geopolitical considerations and the divided public sentiment. A second referendum, if it were to occur, would bring to the surface many of these underlying issues, potentially leading to a different outcome than the first.