The Projected Electoral Outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election
In predicting the electoral outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, it is evident that the candidates will have significantly different margins of victory in the popular and electoral votes. The disparity in votes is likely to be substantial, with Clinton securing a majority in both metrics but the electoral margin being slightly narrower. Let's explore the likely results and the factors influencing the election.
Margins of Victory
Based on current projections, Hillary Clinton is expected to win a two-thirds majority in both popular and electoral votes. This means that her popular vote tally will be approximately twice that of Donald Trump. The electoral vote project shows Clinton winning about 341 electoral votes, while Trump is anticipated to secure around 197.
Here’s a breakdown of the electoral distribution:
Cleaning up the electoral map, Trump is projected to win 157 electoral votes from safe Republican strongholds and states likely or leaning Republican. Rural States: Arizona (11), Oklahoma (7), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Montana (3), and North Dakota (3) are expected to remain with the Republican coalition. Toss-up States: Kansas (6) and Utah (6) are considered battlegrounds, with six electoral votes tentatively allocated to each candidate. Democrats’ Strongholds: Clinton is expected to secure easy wins in states like New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6).Combining these factors, Clinton's electoral tally stands at 26 for 538, whereas Trump's projection leaves him with 40 electoral votes. If we assume moderate success in the rural states he aims for, Trump's projected electoral votes would be around 197, nearly 56 less than the 270 needed to win.
Geographic and Demographic Considerations
The distribution of electoral votes is heavily influenced by geography, with states in the Northeast, Midwest, and West leaning Democratic. Here are some key battleground states and their electoral votes:
New York (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14), and Virginia (13): These states will overwhelmingly go to Clinton, with Trump likely securing only 54 electoral votes in these big states. Mid-South States: While Trump gains some traction in Southern states like Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9), Alabama (9), and Kentucky (8), he struggles in contests for electoral votes. Midwest Toss-ups: Indiana (11) could be a game-changer, but the state's lean towards Democrats and Clinton's strong base remains likely.The electoral map highlights that most of the rural hubs will probably remain under Democratic control, except for Arizona and a few Southern states. This leaves Trump with only 77 electoral votes including Nebraska (9) and Iowa (6), which are toss-up states.
Key Swinging States and Cities
Kansas City, Kansas, located just across the river from Missouri, represents a critical demographic territory within Kansas. The state's vast agricultural areas with fewer inhabitants contrast with the dense urban centers. Salt Lake City, Utah's capital, is an even more striking example, with a concentration in urbanized valleys surrounded by mountain ranges, contributing significantly to its cultural and political lean.
The electoral fate of these cities and states heavily influences the overall result. Women in Utah played a significant role in voting rights history, having the right to vote when other states did not. This historical context underscores the complex interplay between electoral trends and demographic shifts.
Challenges for Trump
Trump faces significant hurdles based on his recent statements and actions. Each misstep or misleading statement seems to broaden the gap between the two candidates. The electorate, especially younger voters and women, increasingly perceive Trump as a threat, both politically and socially.
The current trajectory aligns poorly with Trump's need to secure 123 additional electoral votes to reach the required 270. His task would be magnified, requiring victories in key states and a massive realignment of smaller states' electorates, an unlikely scenario given recent polling trends. Political savviness and personal discipline, particularly regarding communication, are crucial but appear lacking.
Ultimately, Clinton's formidable electoral advantage, combined with Trump's persistent challenges, suggests that the margin of victory will be significant and likely secure Clinton's path to the White House. Trump's strategy to reverse the trend seems insufficient, reinforcing the notion that this election is firmly in Clinton's favor.