Are the Majority of Trump Supporters White Non-College Educated Men?

Introduction

Discussions surrounding who constitutes the majority of Donald Trump's supporters often focus on various demographic factors. A common narrative suggests that white, non-college educated men form the backbone of the Trump coalition. However, a more nuanced analysis reveals that these working-class voters, while significant, are far from constituting a majority of his support base.

Capabilities and Trends Among White Working Class Voters

Observations made from previous elections indicate that although Donald Trump garnered a similar margin of support from college-educated white voters compared to Mitt Romney and John McCain, he also managed to secure a stronger vote from the working-class, non-college-educated whites. These findings challenge the notion that the working class forms the majority of Trump's support base.

The composition of the Trump coalition has its roots in the demographic profile of the American populace. According to the US Census Bureau, approximately 29% of whites have not completed any college education. This figure is higher than initial perceptions and includes individuals who might no longer be categorized as white by today's more inclusive definitions.

Voter Loyalty and Recent Trends

The Pew Research Center conducted a comprehensive report in 2018, shedding light on the changing dynamics of white voters' political affiliations. Their findings revealed a significant shift towards the Republican Party among white voters who lack a college education, with a steady increase observed over the previous decade. Preceding this trend, white voters with no more than a high school education were equally divided between the two parties until 2015. Post-2015, Republicans consistently held a greater share of their votes, particularly in 2017, where they secured a 23-percentage-point lead.

Exit polling inaccuracies in the 2016 elections notwithstanding, the aforementioned data suggests that the typical white working-class voter predominantly supported the Republican candidate. Assuming that 58% of white working-class voters chose Trump in 2016, we can derive a more concrete figure based on the total US white population of around 250 million. This calculation reveals that approximately 56 million white working-class potential voters made Trump their choice.

Emerging Demographic and Its Impact

These findings underscore the significant but not dominant nature of white working-class voters within the Trump coalition. Their support is crucial, as evidenced by American oligarchs, plutocrats, the elderly, and evangelical Christians aligning consistently with the Republican Party. This new demographic of white working-class males voting Republican represents a significant but recent incremental change in the political landscape.

Conclusion

While the white working class, particularly men, play a key role in Trump's support base, they do not constitute the majority. Their shift towards the Republican Party over the past decade, especially in 2017, marks a noteworthy development within the Republican coalition. Understanding this nuances ensures a more accurate interpretation of the political dynamics and the factors driving Trump's success.