Why Putin Avoids Formal Declaration of War: An Analysis of Strategies and Realities

The reconsideration of Russia's military operations in Ukraine has sparked numerous debates, particularly concerning whether Vladimir Putin will formally declare war. This essay delves into Putin's reluctance to do so, examining historical precedents, strategic considerations, and the current state of Russia's military.

Historical Precedents and Strategic Mindset

Back in the 19th century, Otto von Bismarck, a renowned German/Prussian statesman and diplomat, observed that “the Russian saddles his horse slowly. Once saddled the horse runs fast”. This metaphor provides valuable insight into Russia's strategic approach. Putin, much like Bismarck observed, prefers to make calculated and deliberate moves, particularly when it comes to conflict. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Putin has exhibited a methodical and cautious approach.

Despite launching a major invasion of Ukraine 2.5 years ago, in early 2022, the Russian military's effectiveness and the strategic landscape have since shifted considerably. Putin's initial plan, aimed at a swift takeover and a parade in Kiev on Victory Day, faced significant setbacks. The Russian Army, perceived as underperforming and lacking decisive action, has been subjected to criticism and scrutiny both domestically and internationally.

Military and Strategic Constraints

Several factors contribute to Putin's reluctance in formally declaring war:

Declassed and Ineffectual Troops

The Russian Army, perceived as an "army of declassed slaves," faces critical challenges. Their communication systems are subpar, and hierarchical structures mirror those of a feudal empire, hindering cohesive and strategic actions. Different branches of the military operate in silos, diminishing any unified front.

Lack of Success

The failure of the initial invasion attempt adds to Putin's hesitation. The Russian troops, numbering over 300,000 with 300,000 tanks, launched an offensive in early 2022. However, the prolonged conflict has not yielded the desired outcome. Putin's initial assessment, based on flawed information, has proven to be incorrect, leading to a more cautious approach.

Doubts About Capabilities

While commanders and some military units may have engaged in significant combat, the overall strategy and resupply have been criticized. The lack of Russian reactions to recent events in Ukraine, such as the invasion towards Kursk, further underscores the ambiguity surrounding Russia's future plans.

Moreover, Putin's strategic considerations may also include the impact on domestic and international perceptions. Declaring war could be seen as an acknowledgment of failure, which contradicts the image of a strong and indestructible nation.

Propaganda and Domestic Control

Russian propaganda has been a critical component of Putin's political strategy. By defining the war in a particular way, Putin avoids portraying it as a full-scale invasion. Instead, it is framed as a special operation or a defensive measure against perceived "Ukrainian Nazis." The strategic intent here is to maintain domestic support and unity, avoiding a narrative that could lead to internal dissent.

Conclusion

Putin's reluctance to formally declare war is a complex interplay of military inefficiency, strategic reevaluation, and the need for domestic and international political maneuvering. While the 2.5-year-long conflict has demonstrated the Russian military's adaptability and force, the underlying challenges and changing dynamics necessitate a more nuanced approach. In the end, the decision to declare war would be a significant shift, reaffirming the importance of Putin's political and military calculus.