Will Russia Punish its Leaders if Ukraine Surrenders?
The potential surrender of Ukraine has sparked much speculation regarding what might happen to key figures involved, particularly Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Would Russia seek to prosecute or punish these leaders for their roles in the conflict?
Potential Outcomes for Zelensky
The scenario of Zelensky becoming a victim rather than a victor is one that has garnered significant interest. While it’s possible that Zelensky could face legal repercussions, either through charges brought by his own soldiers or through the discovery of new evidence implicating him, the reality is more nuanced.
There are several plausible scenarios:
1. Mercy and Protection
Russia, currently under a moratorium on the death penalty, is unlikely to seek the death penalty for Zelensky. Even if there are concerns about Zelensky’s role, it is more probable that any punishment would be limited and focused on ensuring his safety, especially if meaningful terms of surrender are negotiated. Additionally, Zelensky's cunning nature suggests he may negotiate to maintain his position even as a puppet leader in a future Russian-backed government.
2. Capture by Unlikely Parties
The Donbass Republics (DNR and LNR) are unlikely to capture Zelensky, and Russia itself is even less likely to dare to execute him. Any arrangement for the surrender of Ukraine would likely include provisions for Zelensky’s continued safety and wellbeing.
Putin's Future and Russia's Actions
The question remains whether Putin would face similar penalties. If the war is a significant failure from Russia's perspective, the situation for Putin could be more precarious. However, given Putin's strong position and the absence of a public will for his removal, it seems unlikely that he would be sanctioned in any significant way.
Speculations such as 'If pigs would fly' suggest that while current conditions are unfavorable, the stability expressed by Putin's regime suggests that such drastic actions are improbable.
Historical Precedents
The case of the Mariupol surrender provides a historical precedent. When Russian forces captured soldiers from Mariupol, they showed remarkable leniency, providing them with food, shelter, and medical care. However, once these soldiers returned to Ukraine, their fate was sealed. This raises questions about whether Russia’s humanitarian treatment during the surrender suggests leniency or whether it is just a temporary measure designed to ease the transition.
Future Governance and Zelensky's Position
Even if Ukraine formally surrenders, it is likely that the country will still be in a state of significant political and military upheaval. As a result, Zelensky might run away, leaving the groundwork for a Russian-backed government or puppet regime to be installed.
The new regime is expected to be radically different, with Ukraine losing much of its sovereign and military capacity. It would be forced to adopt strict anti-Nazi laws and reduce its army size significantly, limiting its military capabilities to light infantry.
Conclusion
In summary, while speculation abounds, the likelihood of intense punishment for either Zelensky or Putin appears remote. Political expediency, strategic considerations, and the complexity of post-conflict relations suggest that any actions are more likely to be more about maintaining political stability rather than instigating severe retribution. Russia’s actions in the aftermath of Ukraine’s potential surrender will be watched closely, and the fate of its leaders remains an open question.